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Estimating a European Demand for Money

 
Paper:ewp-mac/9811008
From:    
Date: Thu, 26 Nov 1998 04:19:27 -0600 (CST)

Abstract:
European Monetary Union will come into existence in 1999. This raises questions related to the monetary policy targets that will be adopted by the European Central Bank (ECB). For both likely candidates, targeting a money aggregate or an inflation target, the existence of a stable money demand function at a European level is important. In this paper estimates of such a European money demand for narrow and broad money for the actual 11 EMU countries based on quarterly aggregate data from 1964 to 1994 are presented. It is argued that statistically satisfactory and economically interpretable functions can be found. The robustness of the results is further evaluated using alternative country groups. Moreover, the estimated models appear to be stable over a period of 20 quarters. This raises the hopes that the ECB will face a stable money demand and be able - at least for a certain time - to use past aggregate data for policy purposes.

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EconWPA began as a conversation between Bob Parks and Larry Blume on January 28, 1993. I located Paul Ginsparg's archive (then xxx.lanl.gov) and he graciously installed his software on a Sun Sparc system which was supporting the department of economics email and computation. EconWPA began accepting papers July 1, 1993 and had ftp, email, gopher and web interfaces. The web interface for submissions was engineered into existence in July 1995. A complete and catastrophic machine failure in 1999 caused the loss of EconWPA's email new paper announcment service at which time there were over 15,000 subscriptions with over 8,000 unique email addresses.

In 2005, Arts and Sciences commandeered the computing services that I had provided to the Department of Economics since 1987. Some might say that the department was sold out, others would (erroneously) claim that centralization is efficient, and still others would claim that I have few marketing skills.

I was told that I could keep operating EconWPA (as well as many other services including rfe.wustl.edu, barnett.wustl.edu, and three RePEc servers) but I would receive no support (hardware, software, or anthing else) and (as had been the case) no compensation. At that point, given the apparent low valuation of my activities by the department, and university, it made no sense for me to continue operating EconWPA or other services.

Thanks to all who have supported EconWPA in the past.

A Chinese curse states May you live in intersting times. I have. Bob Parks - Jan 2006